06-01: Phoenix takes hit as national home price index hits negative territory, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that for only the second time in its history and the first time since the early 1990's, the quarterly S&P/Chase-Shiller Home Price Index has fallen into negative territory. And Phoenix is no exception to the trend. The national index showed a 0.7 percent drop from February and a 1.4 percent decline over the past year. Phoenix showed a 0.6 percent drop from February and a 3 percent year-to-year decline. "The fall of the national index into negative territory, after more than 15 years of positive annual growth, is a reaffirmation of the pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market," said Robert J. Shiller, chief economist with MarcoMarkets, LLC. On the positive side, the report also shows that since January 2000, Phoenix typical home gained in value by 117 percent.
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/05/28/daily24.html?t=printable
06-01: Home-price growth slows to lowest rate in 10 years, from the USA TODAY, reports that the rate of increases in U.S. home prices grew at the lowest rate in ten years at 0.5% during the first quarter of 2007. House prices were 4.3% higher in the first quarter of 2007 than they were in the same quarter of 2006. Low interest and unemployment rates continue to buttress house prices in most parts of the country, according to the latest report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. The National Association of Realtors also reported earlier that the median price of an existing single-family home was $212,300 in the first quarter, down 1.8% from the January-March period a year ago.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-05-31-home-prices-ofheo_N.htm
06-01: Mortgage rates rise to an eight-month high, from MSNBC.com, reports that rates on 30-year mortgages rose for a third straight week, reaching their highest level in eight months at 6.42 percent nationwide. That's up slightly from 6.37 percent last week. Analysts attributed the increase to signs of economic strength outside of housing. "Recent reports have indicated that economic growth outside of the housing market remains robust with a healthy consumer sector and improving business spending," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. Rates on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.12 percent this week, and five-year, adjustable rate mortgages averaged 6.19 percent. It is still better than a year ago, when rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 6.67 percent.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/
06-04: Housing prices are flat, but that's definitely a plus, from the Arizona Republic, reports that California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona led the nation for housing price jumps a few years ago during the boom. Now, home prices are down in all the states except Arizona. According to figures released last week by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, during the first quarter of 2007, appreciation fell 0.84 percent in California, 0.34 percent in Florida and 0.52 percent in Nevada. Arizona showed a 0.13 percent gain for the first quarter. Home prices fell in 22 of the 26 California cities ranked by the federal agency. In Florida, appreciation was down in 13 of the 18 cities. Based on the drops in these other cities, our flat appreciation rate looks pretty good.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0603biz-catherine0603.html
06-04: Impact fees to increase Chandler's house costs, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the cost of a new home in Chandler will go up $6,000 today when the city's new impact fees take effect. The increase to $19,538 from $13,587 on a single-family home is among the Valley's highest. Proponents say Chandler needs the money to meet demands for new parks, roads and water lines as the city nears residential build-out. Chandler city officials estimate that there is room in Chandler for about 15,000 more homes. Gilbert's residential impact fee is scheduled to increase next month to $15,968 from $14,633 per home. Avondale recently increased its fees from $9,999 to $18,012, and the Mesa City Council is expected to vote tonight to raise its $5,233 fee to $8,532.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0603fees0604.html
06-05: 12 Valley apartment complexes sell for record $427.5 million, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Bethany Group LLC, a California-based real estate investment firm, purchased 12 apartment complexes in the Valley for $427.5 million, making it the biggest apartment portfolio transaction in Arizona history. The primarily C and B grade complexes totaled 5,178 units. The price works out to $82,561 per unit. Bethany Group LLC plans to give the apartments a "full rehab". "The thing that strikes me in general with regard to the apartment market as of late is the prices people are paying for buildings reflect a lot of faith in the marketplace," said local commercial real estate analyst Bob Kammrath. "If you think back many years ago people use to buy stocks for the dividends and many people used to buy commercial real estate for the income streams," he said. "Now they're buying it on the bet that prices will go up again and they'll make money on the resale," he added.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0604biz-apartmentsales0605-ON.html
06-05: Surprise growth will absorb office-condo surplus, from the Arizona Republic, reports that inexpensive land and overzealous development have made Surprise one of the few Valley areas with an excess of inventory of office condominiums, commercial real estate experts are reporting. They add, however, that the oversupply should be absorbed in the long run as Surprise and the West Valley continue to grow. About 7 percent of Surprises' 225,000 square feet of existing office condo space remains vacant, according to a report by CB Richard Ellis. A total of 623,000 square feet is planned for the near future, according to the report. In Scottsdale and certain areas of the Southeast Valley, the vacancy rate is virtually zero. Colleen McPherson, a broker with CB Richard Ellis, advises that buyers pay no more than $200 per square foot for space. She suggests that in this market area, there is room for negotiations on price and/or tenant improvements.
http://www.azcentral.com/community/surprise/articles/0604gl-nwvoffices0602-ON.html
06-06: Arizona and West poised to beat national job numbers, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that while the national economy is expected to remain sluggish through the rest of the year with a projected 1.3 percent employment gain, projections for the West, including Arizona, are much stronger. Arizona is expected to see a 3.5 percent gain in wage and salary employment for the year, behind only Nevada which is expected to gain 4.3 percent. The information came from the latest Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast put out by the W.P. Carey School of Business at ASU. The Blue Chip Forecast also looks at 2008 with Arizona jobs expected to grow 3.4 percent. As long as we keep gaining population and jobs, our market will be fine.
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/06/04/daily17.html?t=printable
06-06: Many investors feel like running away from homes, from USA TODAY, reports that many real estate investors are switching back to stocks in a complete flip-flop of what occurred in 2002, when investors tired of the bear stock market and began investing in real estate. People doing that were the subject of a USA TODAY cover story in December 2002. Dave Yeske, a San Francisco financial advisor, was featured in that 2002 story because he was being barraged with people selling stocks to buy homes. "The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction," he says now. "The clients that sold stocks to buy spec homes in Arizona are telling me they're under water, can't rent them and wish they had left all the money in the stock market." Many investors are now landlords, getting calls from tenants to fix leaky toilets in properties that are not worth as much as the investor paid for them. The plight of the real estate investor is even the topic of a web mockumentary, called Flipper Nation, that pokes fun at two wannabee real estate speculators who ended up making a $1 profit.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-06-06-real-stocks-usat_N.htm
06-07: Housing slowdown causes problems, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Arizona's lagging housing market likely won't recover until next year and will continue to hinder job growth until it rebounds. "Most buyers, I think, now realize that housing prices are not declining, they've simply leveled off," said Marshall Vest, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management. "Houses are still selling, they've just come off of those peaks that were driven by the mania that ripped the market there for a while," added Vest, who gave his midyear economic report on Wednesday to business leaders in Tucson. Vest's comments were underscored by Dennis Hoffman, a Valley economist who said the amount of money changing hands in real estate sales has dropped about 18 percent, to $6.9 billion, from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007. Hoffman is a professor of economics at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. Sales of existing homes have stabilized and there is about 10 months worth of housing inventory, Vest said. Normally, inventory is about four to five months' worth. Sellers are cutting prices to move homes, but that process needs to continue a while longer before the market can rebuild, he added. "We'll clearly see a recovery, but it's not going to go as quickly or surely as high as it did," Vest added.
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0607biz-vest0607.html
06-07: Realtors lower forecast for home sales, from MSNBC.com, reports that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) lowered its prediction on home sales this week, saying now that they expect sales of existing homes to drop 4.6 percent this year. Two months ago, the NAR predicted a 2.2 percent decline for the year. Sales of new homes are now projected to drop 18.2 percent this year. In addition, the NAR predicts the median price of existing homes will fall in 2007 for the first time since the 1960's, predicting a 1.3 percent decline to $219,000. Next year though, the NAR expects the market to rebound and existing home prices to rise 1.7 percent. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the residential real estate slowdown "appears likely to remain a drag on the economic growth for somewhat longer than previously expected," but he added that the problems don't seem to be spreading to the broader economy.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19069785/
06-08: New survey detail state's known fissures, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the Arizona Geological Survey has recently released maps that show where existing earth fissures are located in Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties. Officials hope the maps will be used as one of many planning tools to prevent structural development around the state's 200 to 300 fissures. Geologists have noted the existence of fissures in Arizona for decades. But they have taken the spotlight recently as growth and development crop up around fissure hot spots, including Pinal County and Maricopa County near Queen Creek and the White Tank Mountains. Fissure maps are available on the Arizona Geological Survey's web site at www.azgs.az.gov <http://www.azgs.az.gov> .
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0608fissure0608.html
06-08: Mortgage rates hit 10-month high, from CNNMoney.com, reports that mortgage rates jumped to the highest level in 10 months after recent reports on unemployment, wage growth and labor costs fanned growing fears about rising inflation, Freddie Mac said Thursday. The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.53 percent for the week ending June 7, up from 6.42 percent the previous week. Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects mortgage rates to top out near 7 percent by the end of the year. Rising rates, among other factors, have caused the MBA and the National Association of Realtors to push back their forecasts for a home price recovery. Both groups now are looking to early 2008, compared with a previous outlook for mid-2007.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/07/real_estate/mortgage_rates/index.htm?postversion=2007060717
06-08: Housing slowdown smacks Realtors hard, from the USA TODAY, reports that in many markets across the country, the glamour of the go-go days-- when investors bought homes sight unseen and lenders didn't require down payments-- are gone. In those areas now, the job of an agent is one of chasing leads, marketing like hell and chauffeuring hesitant buyers to listing after listing. Fifteen percent of all Realtors work more than 60 hours a week. Commissions are being slashed. Sellers are blaming their agents for their home not selling. For many of today's agents, this is the first housing downturn they've ever seen, and it's become a belt-tightening test of their staying power. Nearly 25% of Realtors nationwide received their license in the last two years, just as the market peaked and was turning south. The article follows agents from Coldwell Banker Elite in Stafford, VA and documents what they are facing in this market, and their decisions to stick it out our move on to other opportunities.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-06-08-realtor-usat_N.htm
06-12: Mortgage-fraud bill OK'd, from the Arizona Republic, reports that state lawmakers approved a bill on Monday that would make mortgage fraud a felony. The legislation targets cash-back deals in which the buyer receives a loan for more than a house is worth and keeps the extra cash. The deals can hurt lenders financially and inflate other house values. The bill would send a first-time offender to prison for up to three years. House Bill 2040 passed the Senate 26-0 Monday. The bill's sponsor, Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, said the bill would be one of the toughest white-collar crime laws to pass the Legislature in the past five years. "Mortgage fraud is probably one of the most significant white-collar crimes," Tibshraeny said. "It's the kind of crime that can undermine a whole real estate economy." Arizona ranks seventh in the country in the number of mortgage-fraud cases.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0612mortgage-fraud0612.html
06-13: Valley realty bloggers generate strong opinions-- but beware, from the Arizona Republic, reports that there are several real estate blogs in the Valley written by just about anyone connected to housing: rank & file consumers, real estate agents, mortgage lenders, appraisers, and publishers of everything from trade magazines to on-line newspapers. Real estate blogging is hot because housing generates strong opinions, especially since the market has pulled back from the frenzy of two years ago. It is also part of a wave of technology that is changing the way real estate is bought and sold. The Web has become an essential tool for shoppers to find houses and compare neighborhoods and price. But beware-- the negative blogs can erode the confidence of home buyers if they buy into what the blogger is saying. Housing blogs fall into two categories- either the housing market is headed for Armageddon, or they try to knock down that idea. The article cites several housing blogs that you should be aware of.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0613blogger0613.html
06-13: Southeast Valley home prices continue to decline, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the housing market is picking up a little, but median prices for homes sold in May throughout the Southeast Valley fell compared to a year earlier. Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU, said new home builders are aggressively pursuing homebuyers and competing with resales, and that investors continue to sell and put downward pressure on prices. There are more than 18,000 homes on the market in the Southeast Valley, according to the Arizona Regional MLS, which is a record. May, June and July tend to be the busiest months for homes sales in the Valley. Compared to May 2006, Ahwatukee Foothills saw the biggest decrease in median prices, with a 10 percent decrease to $346,500. Gilbert fell 8 percent to $300,000. Tempe prices fell 6 percent to $270,780. Mesa fell 5 percent to $238,000. Chandler prices fell 3 percent to $297,750.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0613blogger0613.html
06-13: Scottsdale's resale home market declines 21%, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Scottsdale's resale home market continued its decline in sales in May with a 21 percent decline from last year, according to the latest report from Realty Studies at ASU. But median prices rose less than 1 percent for homes, and 4 percent for condos and townhomes. Scottsdale's median home price of $617,000 last month was up $2,000 from last May. Condo prices went up from $261,500 last May to $273,250 last month, but sales fell 3 percent. Still, Jay Butler, Realty Studies director, sounded an optimistic note on the overall Valley market. "The general expectation is that the 2007 resale housing market should be a good year, but no where near the records," Butler said. Sales dropped Valleywide in May by 24 percent from last year.
http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0612sr-homesales0613-ON.html
06-14: Home sales drop in numbers, price, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that there were 5,220 homes sold in Maricopa County in May, about half the number sold in 2005, according to Arizona State University's Realty Studies Department. Year-to-date, about 24,000 homes have been sold. That's down 20 percent from last year and about half the number from 2005. The median home price also dropped to $262,000 in May, down $3,000 from the same time last year. "The general expectation is that the 2007 resale housing market should be a good year, but nowhere near the records," said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU. In May, 16 percent of all recorded sales were for homes priced from $125,000 to $199,999, 42 percent were for homes in the $200,000 to $299,999 range and 39 percent were for homes priced at more than $300,000. Last year, the median prices trended higher across the board.
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/06/11/daily26.html?t=printable
06-14: Existing home sales show slight bump in dragging market, from the East Valley Tribune, also reports on the recent sales and price report from ASU. It adds that the market is dealing with a huge overhang of housing inventory, which hit record highs in recent months-- soaring to more than 50,000. Many are investment properties. The slump has hit some areas harder than others. Those closer to freeways and jobs are holding steady, while prices in outlying areas continue to drop. Sellers in Pinal County and the West Valley are struggling to compete with builders offering larger homes, landscaping and other incentives at resale prices, said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU. High energy prices and traffic congestion are also impacting sales, he said.
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/91454
06-15: Fewer Ariz. homeowners falling behind, from the Arizona Republic, reports that mortgage delinquencies across Arizona dropped to 3 percent at the end of March from 3.51 percent at the end of 2006, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, a sign that the housing market may be on the rebound. Nationally, the delinquency rate fell to 4.84 percent, from 4.95 percent. "It's one less black cloud over Phoenix's housing market," said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU. "But it will take a couple of quarters of lower delinquency rates and inventories of homes for sale to see if the market is turning," he added. Arizona's foreclosure rate climbed from 0.76 percent of all loans at the end of 2006 to 0.95 percent of all loans at the end of March. The state's overall rate is still low compared with the rest of the country, but the recent increase signals several more thousand people are about to lose their homes. Many of the current delinquency and foreclosure problems can be traced to the investor speculation that occurred during the frenzy of 2004 and 2005.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0615deliquencies0615.html
06-15: Pinal housing sales drop in first quarter, from the Arizona Republic, reports that from a high of 1,785 recorded sales in the second quarter of 2005, the Pinal County resale market has steadily declined to 840 transactions in the first quarter of 2007. There were 1,100 sales in the first quarter of 2006. Although year-to-date sales are down, activity has increased from 210 sales in January to 345 sales in March. The median price has also gone from $220,000 in the fourth quarter of 2005 to $204,600 in the first quarter of 2007, but was up from the $191,500 for the fourth quarter of 2006. The median home price in Pinal County was 78 percent of the median price in Maricopa County. While Pinal County has a limited job base and commercial real estate sector, people were willing to drive increasingly longer distances to find affordable housing. "But now, higher gasoline prices and more congested highways has begun to limit the housing market in Pinal County," said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU.
http://www.azcentral.com/community/pinal/articles/0614st-pinalhousing14-ON.html
06-15: Mortgage rates jump to 11-month high, from MSNBC.com, reports that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages rose for a fifth straight week to 6.74 percent, the highest level in 11 months. That was up from 6.53 percent last week and represented the biggest one-week rise in 30-year rates in more than three years. ""These moves parallel rising yields on Treasury securities as concerns about inflation pressures and continuing strength of consumer and business spending have dimmed hopes for an interest rate cut," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. All mortgage rates tracked by Freddie Mac showed increases this week. Rates on 15-year, fixed rate mortgages rose to 6.43 percent from 6.22 percent last week, and five-year adjustable rate mortgages rose to 6.37 percent, up from 6.24 percent.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/
06-19: Housing index hits lowest level since 1991, from MSNBC.com, reports that National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of current market conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell to 28, the lowest reading since February 1991. Ratings higher than 50 indicate positive sentiment about the market. The index had been sliding since March as demand for new housing slumped amid the rise in defaults for borrowers with weak, or subprime credit. "It's clear that the crisis in the subprime sector has prompted tighter lending standards in much of the mortgage market," David Seiders, NAHB's chief economist said in a statement, adding rising interest rates have also eroded demand.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19295922/
06-19: Subprime storm winds will keep blowing, from the USA TODAY, reports that the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that adjustable-rate subprime foreclosures, already at a record, will rise into 2008, affecting borrowers, lenders and such Wall Street firms as Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns, which packaged subprime loans into bonds. Hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of adjustable-rate loans reset to higher rates in coming months. While the Fed doesn't expect the foreclosures-- about 2% of the total mortgage market-- to derail the economy, they could have far-reaching consequences: tighter oversight of Wall Street firms, more stringent rules for lending that affect borrowers at all income levels, and loss of wealth in low-income and minority neighborhoods.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-06-18-subprime-usat_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
06-20: Phoenix sweats out top ranking for business recruitment, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that Phoenix claimed the number one ranking from Expansion Management magazine as the best place for recruitment and attraction, and Arizona ranked as the top state. Maricopa County came in at number 4 for counties in the U.S. Two Arizona cities also made the midsize list: Tucson at No. 4 and Flagstaff at No. 5. Yuma came in at 7th on the small cities list. The magazine, geared to company executives looking to expand or relocate their facilities, worked with the National Policy Council think tank to develop the rankings. The council analyzed the relocation activity of 19 million companies over the past eight years to determine the most popular commercial relocation destinations.
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/06/18/daily16.html?t=printable
06-20: May housing starts fall 2.1%, but permits rise 3%, from USA TODAY, reports that May housing starts fell 2.1% nationwide, but permit activity, a sign of future building activity, rose more than anticipated, according to the latest numbers from the Commerce Department. Analysts saw Tuesday's data as suggesting that the stagnant housing market could be showing faint signs of life. "On balance while the report does not yet make the case we are out of the woods, it does suggest that the inventory drawdown is running its course and points to stabilization in housing," said Alex Beuzelin, senior market analyst with Ruesch International in Washington.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-06-19-housing-starts_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
06-20: Housing industry still looking for the bottom, from MSNBC.com, reports that as the housing market remains weak in many parts of the country, home builders are looking to see when the industry will hit bottom. "I still think we're not at the bottom in terms of housing construction," said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. "Sales have to bottom out first... We haven't seen that yet. And construction starts will probably bottom out six to nine months after that." Hardest hit regions were the ones that experienced rapid growth during the height of the housing boom, including California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada. "I would say we have not got the bad times behind us," said Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers last month. "Though it could be. You never know", Toll added. It is unclear how long it will take the home building industry to recover, but industry watchers say much depends on the overall economy, which so far, has been able to shrug off the housing downturn.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19311316/
06-21: Mortgage rates edge down slightly, from MSNBC.com, reports that rates on 30-year mortgages, after rising for five straight weeks, edged down slightly this week as investors reacted to news that suggested the economic drag from housing could last longer than expected. The government reported that construction of new homes fell 2.1 percent in May, leaving homebuilding activity 24.2 percent below the level of a year ago, while the National Association of Home Builders said its index of builder sentiment in June fell to a 16-year low. "Mortgage rates eased this week due to market concerns that the housing market will be a longer drag on the economy," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed rate mortgages averaged 6.69 percent, down from 6.74 percent last week. Rates on 15-year, fixed rate mortgages fell to 6.37 percent, down from 6.43 percent last week. Five year ARMS averaged 6.31 percent, down from 6.37 percent last week.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/
06-21: Housing rebound projected for 2008, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip real estate panel is forecasting a 13 percent drop in single-family permits for 2007, to 37,000 permits. But they are predicting a rebound in 2008 to 40,000 permits, a 10 percent increase over 2007 levels. However there is some uncertainty to the forecast, writes topics editor Elliott Pollack. He notes a wide spread in predictions among panelists from a low of 27,000 permits for 2007 to a high of 48,000. "The single-family residential market weakened considerably late in 2006 but recently picked up again," Pollack wrote. "It remains to be seen if this is an aberration or if the worst is over", he added.
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/06/18/daily37.html?t=printable
06-21: Study: It's a good bet home prices will drop, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Metropolitan Phoenix has the second highest chance of seeing home prices drop during the next two years, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Group's new study of housing appreciation in the U.S.'s 50 biggest metro areas. Riverside, CA has the biggest chance, the study said. The Valley led the nation with the biggest fall-off in home price increases during the past year. Between the first quarters of 2006 and 2007, Phoenix-area home prices climbed 4.5 percent, after jumping nearly 50 percent during 2005. PMI attributed the Valley slowdown in housing appreciation to fewer Californians moving to the area for its ranking of potential price drops. PMI reports that Phoenix has a 64.6 percent chance of seeing home prices fall by 2009, where the average chance for home prices to drop among the biggest metro areas was 34.6 percent.
http://www.azcentral.com/community/ahwatukee/articles/0619biz-talker-phx0620-ON-CP.html
06-25: Valley housing market is still good, from the Arizona Republic, reports that despite competition from a huge number of homes for sale in the Phoenix area, real estate expert Jay Butler told Tempe leaders Thursday that prices remain above the national average. "The market is about where it should be and people don't like to hear that", the director of Realty Studies at ASU said at the Tempe Chamber of Commerce lunch. The median price of a home in the Phoenix area use to be about 90 percent of the National Association of Realtors national median price, he said. Now, with the run up in home prices, Phoenix's median price sits at about $260,000, above the national median price of $219,000. Butler notes several problems facing the market. Buyers can't afford as much because of the higher prices and because skittish lenders have been tightening their loan guidelines. Sellers can't or won't lower prices because they owe too much. and buyers are having problems selling their own homes. "The problem is a lot of people say this is a buyers market, but most buyers first have to be sellers." he said.
http://www.azcentral.com/community/tempe/articles/0622tr-butler0623.html <http://www.azcentral.com/community/tempe/articles/0622tr-butler0623.html>
06-25: Bypass considered to ease traffic in I-10, from the Arizona Republic, reports that state highway planners have floated the idea of a bypass freeway connecting Phoenix and Tucson, and it is stirring lots of debate. Urban planners predict mushrooming growth will connect Phoenix and Tucson into a vast "megapolitan" area. The so-called Sun Corridor is one of 10 "super-sized" metro areas expected to be the epicenter of growth during the next four decades. A I-10 bypass would bring another major roadway to the area with the goad of carrying cross-country drivers around the heavy traffic in Phoenix and Tucson. Housing professionals agree that much of the open space between Phoenix and Tucson will be developed in the next 15 to 20 years, about as long as it would take to build an I-10 bypass. The combined population of the "Sun Corridor" is about 5 million now, and it is expected to double by 2040. No route is locked in and ADOT is still collecting comments, so if you have an opinion, contact ADOT or go to their web site for more details.
http://www.azcentral.com/community/pinal/articles/0625bypass0625.html
06-26: Existing-home sales drop to 4-year low, from MSNBC.com, reports that according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales of existing homes nationwide fell for the third straight month in May and prices declines for a record 10th straight month. In addition, the inventory of unsold homes shot up to the highest level in 15 years, meaning more downward pressure on prices in the months ahead until the inventory glut is reduced. Sales of existing homes fell 0.3 percent in May and are now 10.3 percent below where they were a year ago. The median price fell to $223,700, down 2.1 percent from a year ago. "The only way we are going to chip away at this Mount Everest-sized pile of inventory is by price cuts and so far, sellers haven't been aggressive enough," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research. Lawrence Yun, senior economist for NAR, said "it appears some buyers are simply waiting for more signs of stability before they get serious about getting into the market. The lack of buyers' confidence is a major factor in the lower sales," he added.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19414289/
06-26: No signs yet of housing market bottom, from MSNBC.com, reports that the National Association of Realtors revised their home sales outlook for 2007, now saying that existing homes sales will fall 4.6 percent this year, worse that the previous forecast of a 2.9 percent drop. And the median price for a home is expected to fall 1.3 percent this year, the first annual decrease on record. The housing market is entering uncharted territory, according to some analysts. "We don't have any experience with this," said Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida. "First of all, this was an incredible housing boom, unlike anything else we've had n our history... the unwinding, the downside of this, with published price declines unlike anything in history-- that is the unknown." The big question on everyone's mind is when will we hit bottom. A lot depends on the US economy, which so far is doing well. Other factors are how quickly inventory can be reduced and on what interest rates do in the coming months.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19417232/
06-27: Appraisers push for real estate fraud rules, from CNN.com, reports that in testimony Tuesday before a Senate subcommittee on mortgage industry abuses, Alan Hummel, spokesman for the Appraisal Institute said "Appraisers face pressure from various parties involved in mortgage transactions. They are told to doctor their appraisals or else never see work from those parties again." Unscrupulous mortgage brokers should be singled out for special blame, according to Mike Evans, a fellow of the American Society of Appraisers. "Mortgage brokers are on commission," he said. "If the deal doesn't go through, they don't get paid. They don't care about anything but making the deal. If the appraisal comes in below, they can't get the deal done." That's when the mortgage brokers and real estate agents hit the warpath. "They have to go out and beat up the appraisers," said Evans, who said he's been threatened himself, "and find one they can twist."
http://money.cnn.com/index.html?cnn=yes <http://money.cnn.com/index.html?cnn=yes>
06-27: New U.S. home sales slide in May, from MSNBC.com, reports that sales of new homes fell in May for the fourth time in the past five months, dropping 1.6 percent in May, according to the Commerce Department. The median price of a new home was down 0.9 percent from the price a year ago, now sitting at $236,100. Sales of new homes were down 7.3 percent in the South, 11 percent in the Northeast, 1.9 percent in the West, but up 30.8 percent in the Midwest. Home prices are expected to fall further in the coming months as builders slash prices more to trim a glut of inventory. Much of the housing recovery hinges on the U.S. economy, which has shown anemic growth in the first three months of this year. However, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he believes the economy will rebound in coming months despite the fact that the housing slowdown is lasting longer than the Fed had expected. Many analysts believe that growth in the current April-June quarter will come in at a more respectable 3.5 percent rate even though they say that the drag from housing should last for the rest of the year.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19436003/ <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19436003/>
06-28: Thousands of Arizonans in danger of losing homes, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that statewide, 5,918 properties entered some stage of foreclosure last month, a nearly 200 percent increase from May 2006, said RealtyTrac, which tracks the national foreclosure market. "Nobody's immune to it," said Patti Crawford, who manages Intero Real Estate Services' foreclosure division in Mesa. To make matters worse, some homeowners also risk incurring thousands of dollars in fees-- called prepayment penalties-- if they attempt to refinance within a set period of time, said Jeff Brock, a loan officer with The Mortgage Advantage in Tempe. "A lot of them didn't even realize what type of loan they were on." he said. The article gives the number of foreclosures by zip code in the SE Valley.
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/92329 <http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/92329>
06-28: New road planned to link Anthem, Carefree Highway, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Maricopa County, responding from demands from Anthem residents, is planning a new road that will provide an alternative route into Phoenix for Anthem residents. The road would parallel the east side of Interstate 17 along much of its three mile route. It would pick up at North Valley Parkway and Carefree Highway, just east of the interchange with I-17. It would then follow the freeway north to meet the existing Galvin Peak Parkway on the south side of Anthem. The county is also looking at adding two lanes to Seventh Street north of Carefree Highway, which curves to the west and becomes New River Road before joining I-17 north of Anthem.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0628phxnewroad0628.html <http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0628phxnewroad0628.html>
06-28: Gilbert 5th fastest-growing U.S. city, from the Arizona Republic, reports that new population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show Gilbert added 13,860 people between 2005 and 2006, beefing up its population to 191,500, making it the fifth fastest growing U.S. city during that time frame. Since 2000, Gilbert has grown by 81,350 people, or 74 percent! Phoenix cemented its standing as the nations fifth largest city with 1.5 million residents. Phoenix also had the largest population increase (43,000) of all cities between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2006, according to the estimates. Mesa, which is closing in on 450,000 residents, passed Kansas City, MO and Cleveland, OH on its way to being the 38th most populous city nationwide. Peoria was the seventh fastest growing city with its population increasing 5.8 percent to 142,024.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0628census0628.html <http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0628census0628.html>
06-29: Valley home builders battle slump, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that there were 3,135 new home sales across the Valley in May, a slight uptick from the month before, according to the latest Phoenix Housing Market Letter by local housing analyst RL Brown. May's numbers were 26 percent below May 2006 numbers. For the first five months of 2007, there have been 16,449 new home sales, compared with 20,522 for the first five months of 2006. Developers are still fighting the same basic problem for months now: a huge oversupply of homes on the market, Brown said. Many potential new home buyers need to sell their old ones first and can't, he said. "We have too many homes on the market, and too many houses are overpriced for the market conditions," he said. Valleywide, there are currently more than 50,000 existing homes for sale. Still, the Valley's housing market is healthy by historical standards, he said.
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/92349
06-29: Mortgage rates edge down slightly, from MSNBC.com, reports that rates on 30 year mortgages dipped slightly this week, the second decline after five weeks of increases. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.67 percent this week, compared with 6.69 percent last week. A year ago, rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages stood at 6.78 percent. Analysts attributed the decline to developments in the bond markets and to the worsening state of the housing market. "This week we saw further effects of the current housing recession," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac. He noted that existing home sales dipped to the slowest pace in four years while the number of unsold homes on the market climbed to the highest level in 15 years.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/