05-01:  Slump isn't slowing vacation home sales, from MSNBC.com, reports that demand for vacation homes was strong in 2006, while sales of investment homes plunged, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Monday. The NAR said sales of second homes for investment fell by 28.9 percent in 2006, while vacation home sales rose 4.7 percent. According to the NAR survey, 22 percent of all homes purchased last year were for investment, down from 28 percent in 2005. The number of vacation homes purchased last year represented 14 percent of the total market for new and existing homes, up from a 12 percent share in 2005. The NAR survey shoed the typical vacation-home buyer in 2006 was 44 years old and had a median household income of $102,000. The vacation home was a median of 215 miles from the homeowners primary residence. The median price of a vacation home in 2006 was $200,000.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18405318/

05-01:  Californians lay odds on Phoenix more than Vegas, from the Arizona Republic, reports that for the first time since Nevada became a magnet for Californians in the 1990s, the Phoenix area has nudged Las Vegas out of No. 1 destination for people leaving the Golden State and its soaring home prices. Tax returns for 2005, the most recent data, show a net 11,375 households, representing 29,000 people, moved from California to Maricopa County in 2004, while a net 10,657 households with about 23,000 members moved from California to Clark County, Nev. "Housing isn't cheap in Vegas anymore, nor is it in Phoenix, compared to what it was. It's still cheap compared to California," said R.L. Brown, publisher of Phoenix Housing Market Letter. "We're averaging 9,000 Californians a month changing their (driver's) licenses to Arizona. To me, that's a phenomenal number."

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0501biz-housing0501.html

05-01:  Construction hiring, spending climbs as housing permits wane, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that construction employment was up 5.8 percent during the first quarter of 2007, compared with the same quarter of 2006, according to the latest issue of the Arizona Blue Chip Economic Forecast. Going forward, Blue Chip economists say construction job growth will likely weaken as housing permits continue to wane. Blue Chip economist report a 30 percent drop in single-family home permits year to date on both a national and state level.  

 http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/04/30/daily13.html?t=printable

05-02:  Arizona economy remains on positive track, outpaces national growth, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that increased production is helping Arizona maintain a stronger growth level than the national economy, despite the deflated housing market, according to the latest Arizona Business Conditions Index released yesterday by ASU. The overall index rose to 60.1 in April, up from 56.2 in March. Any reading over 50 indicates that the local economy is growing, while a reading below 50 suggests a slowdown.

 http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/04/30/daily18.html?t=printable

05-02:  Housing market trend is upward, analyst says, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that Valley developers and homebuilders took out more building permits for the fifth month in a row in March, though sales continue to sag. There were 3,737 permits issued in March, up from 3,630 in February but down 21 percent from a year ago, according to the latest Phoenix Housing Market Letter from analyst RL Brown. "It's a positive sign that the trend is upward," Brown said. Builders are also making progress on getting rid of excess inventory, but the new home market is facing another hurdle-- tightening lending standards, he said. "I think that's the dark cloud that's on the horizon," he said. In March, there were 3,674 new homes sold, down 20 percent from the same month last year. For the first three months of 2007, there have been 10,369 new homes sold, compared with 12,536 for the same period in 2006.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/88852

05-03:  Large Pinal County project underway, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that initial work has begun on Shea Homes 2,400 home master-planned community called Encanterra in the Queen Creek area at the southeast corner of Gantzel and Combs roads. Construction on homes is expected to start this fall with the first residents moving in around Spring 2008, with total build-out projected for 2014. Shea Homes hopes, in part, to appeal to workers commuting to Chandler's growing high-tech employment zones. The housing market is flat, but Arizona's long-term outlook is positive, said Hal Looney, area president of Shea's Trilogy division. "The job market remains strong," and it's affordable compared with California or Las Vegas, Looney said. Homes will range from 1,450 to 3,660 square feet, but prices have not yet been set. The development will also have a golf course, a 45,000 square foot club with spa facilities, an Internet cafe and a bar.
 
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/88925
 
05-03:  Borrowers in trouble may get some relief, from MSNBC.com, reports that several major participants in the home mortgage market have agreed to adopt a set of principles for dealing with homeowners with high-priced loans who face possible foreclosure, said Senate Banking Committee chairman Sen. Christopher Dodd. Dodd has been pushing for such action by lenders as a possible solution to the subprime mortgage crisis. Those agreeing to the principles include Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co., HSBC Holdings Corp., Bear Stearns & Co., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Among the principles are: contacting distressed borrowers promptly to try to work out arrangements; making loans more affordable by reducing rates, changing terms and other means; and providing refinancing at the lowest cost possible for those who are eligible. Some companies however, including Countrywide Financial Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. did not endorse the principles. Nearly 2 million ARM's are resetting to higher rates this year and next, setting up a potential wave of foreclosures that has put everyone on edge.
 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18445587/

05-04:  Pinal County home sales down, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that there were 840 existing home sales in Pinal County during the first quarter of 2007, about half the number from the same period two years ago, according to the Realty Studies at Arizona State University Polytechnic. From a high of 1,785 recorded sales in the second quarter of 2005, the Pinal County resale market has steadily declined to the current 840 quarterly sales. The median price has also fallen, from a high of $220,000 in the fourth quarter of 2005 to $204,600 in the first quarter of 2007. The median home price in Pinal County was 78 percent of the median price in Maricopa County ($262,570).

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/04/30/daily40.html?t=printable

05-04:  Condos available-- for a lofty price, from the Arizona Republic Scottsdale, reports that Scottsdale's redevelopment boom the past few years has brought several thousand new condominiums to the downtown Scottsdale area, most with price tags of $500,000 and up. Sometimes, way up. That has some citizens wondering where the affordable lofts and condos are for people with normal means. Grace Communities is building the X Wine Lofts northwest of Scottsdale and Osborn Roads. It will have 82 units and target young buyers. Prices for the smallest 900 s.f. unit start at over $300,000, with the larger units (2,100 s.f.) selling for up to $900,000. Urban Homes Development Corp. plans to break ground in August on another 288-unit project called Citro Camelback, at 78th Street and Camelback Road. Prices on the first 96 units will start at $500,000. Even apartment dwellers are getting squeezed out due to condo conversions and apartment being torn down. The latest is the Orchidtree Apartments at 68th Street and Camelback, where a large condo project is now planned.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0503sr-biz0504realestate-ON.html

05-07:  Market lures contractors to Arizona, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that the Phoenix metro area continues to draw home builders and others in the growth industry as the area continues to see big population gains. According to the latest figures from the U.S. Census Bureau, Maricopa County's population increased by 129,642 last year, helping Phoenix pass Philadelphia to become the nation's fifth largest city. As the area continues to grow, more construction related companies are moving operations here. Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU said the market most likely will absorb more local and national construction contractors, subcontractors and other growth-industry entities. He points to the usual economic factors-- a thriving economy and population growth-- to stimulate the construction business. "Phoenix is typically viewed as one of the top five growth markets in the country. Some consider it No. 1," he said. "Phoenix is unique in that way, because we have always had growth on our side."

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/05/07/story7.html?t=printable

05-07:  Arizona maintains its low foreclosure rate, from the Arizona Republic, reports that while foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies have climbed in the metro area in the past year, Arizona still ranks very low nationally for both. Arizona's foreclosure rate is in the bottom ten among U.S. states, primarily due to our wild run up in prices, continued growth and proactive efforts by lending groups to stave off foreclosures. Arizona does rank high for subprime loans, second in the nation after Nevada, which has many concerned that these homeowners could fall into foreclosure. But efforts from ACORN and other governmental agencies are trying to change grace periods and restructure bad loans to help homeowners avoid foreclosure.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0506biz-catherine0506.html

05-07:  Tighter credit is hurting agents, lenders, builders, from the Arizona Republic, reports that tighter lending restrictions that are cutting back subprime loans come at a bad time for the Phoenix-area housing market. Real estate agents and lenders are losing deals because buyers can no longer qualify for riskier loans. Builders, struggling to unload spec homes, fear that the fewer number of buyers will stall efforts to get back to higher production. Doug Fulton of Fulton Homes expects to lose 10 percent of the sales of its current 700 homes under construction as buyers fail to qualify. "Builders are going to get a bunch of inventory back, and I am too," he said. "You don't want to get one (house) back if you don't have to. You're kind of scratching for sales as it is." The National Association of Home Builders said in April that the subprime crisis pushed builder confidence to its lowest level since December 2006. The trade group said tighter lending standards were rattling consumers and builders.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0507subprime0507side.html

05-08:  Southeast Valley tops in retail construction, from the Arizona Republic, reports that two-thirds of the record 9.6 million square feet of retail space under construction is in the Southeast Valley. That's the equivalent of at least five new Chandler Fashion Centers. "Coming in the next year and a half will probably be, without a doubt, the greatest amount of retail space opened in the Phoenix area ever," said Bob Kammrath, a Phoenix commercial real estate analyst. The new regional malls, such as Westcor's San Tan Village, are open-air lifestyle centers. Retail analysts and brokers say the surge in new retail in the Southeast Valley is because retail follows the rooftops and craves freeways. Brokers say that the next big retail spurts are expected in Pinal County and the West Valley. The overall retail vacancy in the Valley is at 5 percent. 

http://www.azcentral.com/community/chandler/articles/0507tr-retail0507-2-CP.html

05-10:  Builder enticements stymie home resales, from the Arizona Republic, reports that sales of existing homes in the Valley fell to 4,855 in April, down from 5,385 resales in March. This compares with 5,980 sales in April 2006 and 8,735 in April 2006. New home builders offering incentives like free pools and discounted upgrades were cited as one of the reasons for the slower sales. Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU, said "while the resale market is tracking near historical norms, the levels should be well below those of the last few years because the current market lacks the market frenzy to own and/or invest at almost any price and reasoning." So far this year, 19,045 homes in Maricopa County have sold, compared with 23,960 for the same period in 2006 and 36,000 sales in 2005. The median price in April was $265,000 versus $265,470 in March and $264,900 in April 2006.

 http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0510biz-housing0510.html

05-10:  Ahwatukee housing sales up, prices down, from the Arizona Republic, reports on sales and prices for resales in the Southeast Valley. It reports that Ahwatukee is the only Southeast Valley city that showed an increase in sales in April compared with April 2006. However, prices dropped 15 percent, compared with other Southeast Valley cities that showed price increases. Jay Butler at ASU said "April is historically not a month that shows improvement over prior months. It's not a disaster market; it's not a horrible market; it's a fairly normal market." Here are the April stats for the Southeast Valley cities: Ahwatukee had 125 sales and the median price dropped to $325,000. Chandler had 375 resales and the median price rose to $297,950. Gilbert saw 285 resales and its median price dropped to $295,195. Mesa showed 530 resales and the median price dropped to $234,510. Tempe saw sales decline to 120, but the median price rose to $285,000.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/ahwatukee/articles/0509ar-housing09-ON.html

05-10:  Median price for Scottsdale homes falls 6%, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Scottsdale's median price for a resale home fell 6 percent in April to $557,500, down from $593,000 a year ago and down from $635,000 in March. There were 400 resales in Scottsdale, a decline of 13 percent from last April, signaling continued softness in the local real estate market. There were 300 Scottsdale condos sold in April, equal to last year. The median price for a Scottsdale condo fell 4 percent to $264,450. Paradise Valley's median price was at $1.64 million, up 7 percent from a year ago.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0509sr-homesales0510-ON.html

05-11:  Home sales rebound still on hold, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that due to the tightening of mortgage loan standards, don't look for a rebound in the housing market for most areas of the country any time soon. "The housing correction is going to be prolonged," said Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moodys Economy.com. "Mortgage lenders are becoming much more circumspect. Lenders are not going to be handing out money as readily." Even NAR economist David Lereah admits that the tighter lending standards could be a drag on the market through much of the year. David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said "builders are reporting direct impacts on both sales and cancellations as prospective buyers are unable to get mortgage credit or are unable to sell their existing homes because of tightening credit."

http://www.bizjournals.com/edit_special/51.html?t=printable

05-11:  It was boom; now it's bust for home sales in the West, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that the National Association of Realtors says the West saw a 16.7 percent drop in sales of existing homes in March, with the median price falling 2.9 percent to $330,600. Many cities in California are still trying to claw their way out of the slump. California home sales decreased 20.8 percent in March compared with the same period a year ago, but median prices did increase 3.2 percent. The article states that if there's a bright spot in the Southwest, it may be in the Valley of the Sun, as Phoenix appears to be at least holding its own. The Phoenix Business Journal reports that prices are holding steady, though housing inventory is up, and it may take longer to resell existing homes.

http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/90.html?t=printable

05-11:  Existing home sales see drop, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that sales of existing homes in the Valley dipped in April but were close to historical norms. According to Realty Studies at ASU, there were 4,855 resales in April, a 9.8 percent drop from March. April is typically a sluggish month according to Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies. "The next several months will be the key as to how the area plays out," he said. Sellers are still facing stiff competition from new home builders, foreclosures are on the rise and inventories are near record highs. The full impact of the subprime mortgage market meltdown also is unclear. Marginal borrowers in the entry-level home market are getting pushed out by tighter lending standards, Butler added. Still, interest rates are low and the economy is good, he said.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/89403

05-14:  Realistic prices help ailing home market, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the wide gap between what a home is listed for and what it sells for is shrinking, which means Valley home sales could start to pick up if more buyers and sellers agree on prices. "Both buyers and sellers are readjusting their expectations," said University of Arizona economist Marshall vest. "Buyers are coming back into the market with reasonable offers. More homeowners are pricing their homes to sell." Vest analyzed data from the Arizona Regional MLS and found that the spread between what Valley home prices sold for in March and what they were listed for  is the narrowest it has been since mid 2004. Valley home listings hit a high of 50,000 recently, and that needs to come down for a healthy market. "People are realizing this isn't a fad," said Margie O'Campo de Castillo of Arizona Dream Realty. "Listing prices have to come down for homes to sell, and buyers have to be realistic. It's good to see it finally happening."

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0513homeprices0514.html


05-14:  Sotheby's eyes Valley's real estate, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that Sotheby's International Realty Affiliates is moving toward opening a franchise in the Valley by the end of 2007. Operating in more than 20 countries, the firm serves high-end buyers on the hunt for third, fourth and fifth homes. Sotheby's has talked with several Valley franchise candidates who run existing agencies over the past year. Scottsdale real estate agent Dean Benigno, who specializes in golf course properties, said he isn't surprised Sotheby's is entering the local market. "This Valley has become more international over the years. It's not just a local market anymore," he added. Scottsdale broker Sandra Wilken said the entry of Sotheby's into the market would benefit her business by bringing more clientele into the Valley. She added that her company, which does a lot of out-of-area deals, would be interested in working with Sotheby's.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/89562

05-15:  Residents turning houses into vacation homes, from the Arizona Republic, reports that some homeowners in Pinal County are turning their investments into vacation homes. Their investing in high-count thread sheets, stocking refrigerators with continental breakfasts and renting to visitors who stay for a few days or weeks. In an area where hotel rooms are hard to come by, some of these new innkeepers are finding success. There are plenty of golf courses around and more than 300 days of sunshine. at roughly $100 per night for a five bedroom, three bath house that can sleep about a dozen, it's cheaper than most hotels. Look for this trend to continue.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/pinal/articles/0514st-vacation05-ON.html


05-15:  Scottsdale is focus of commercial building boom, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that nearly half the office space under construction in the Valley is being built in Scottsdale. Nearly 3.7 million square feet of office space is under construction in the Valley this year, according to CB Richard Ellis. Of that, more than 1.6 million square feet is being built in Scottsdale. Of that, more than 1.1 million square feet is under construction at the Scottsdale Airpark, which is getting close to build-out. Scottsdale is attractive to business because of its proximity to housing priced for executives, the accessibility of Loop 101 and amenities like golf and fine dining.  Rick Kidder, Scottsdale Area Chamber of Commerce president, says that Scottsdale may be in its last big push of office construction. Once the vacant land has been built out, which could happen by 2020, many properties could be redeveloped, he said.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/89739

05-16:  Arizona ranks seventh as foreclosure frenzy continues, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that foreclosures continue to plague homeowners across the country, and Arizonans are no exception. Foreclosure filings in April are up 65 percent from the same month a year ago, according to a new report by Realty Trac. Foreclosures were down 1 percent from March, but that may be because of an uptick in buying tied to the spring season. Arizona continues to be one of the hardest-hit states. The state ranks No. 7 overall with 5,007 foreclosures in April. That translates to one in every 438 households. Nationally, there were about 140,000 foreclosures in April. California topped the list with more than 25,000 filings.

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/05/14/daily14.html?t=printable

05-16:  Home sales, prices below last year's rate, from MSNBC.com, reports that sales of existing homes fell almost 7 percent in the first quarter of 2007, the National Association of Realtors reported on Tuesday. The NAR report came on the same day that RealtyTrac Inc., an industry firm, said mortgage lenders foreclosed on 62 percent more U.S. homes in April than a year ago. "We expect foreclosure activity to at least stay above last year's levels for the remainder of 2007, fueled by a combustible mix of risky loans taken out in the last few years-- many in the subprime market-- and slowing home price appreciation," said James Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac. Home prices are still falling, with the national median existing single-family home price in the first quarter at $212,300, down 1.3 percent from a year ago, according to the NAR. At least part of that decline is attributed to buyers shifting away from more expensive homes, the Realtor trade group added. There are some signs of hope in the housing market as existing home sales rose at a 2.4 percent higher annual rate than in the final quarter of 2006, and fourteen states and the District of Columbia showed an increase in the rate of home sales in the first quarter, compared with only six states showing gains a quarter earlier.

 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18683292/

05-17:  Spring looks like a washout for housing market, from MSNBC.com, reports that according to monthly government data released Wednesday, construction of new homes in the U.S.-- mostly multifamily housing-- bumped up a bit in April compared with March. But overall, housing construction activity is still 26 percent below this time last year. The outlook for the rest of the year remains fairly bleak as applications for new building permits fell nearly 9 percent in April from the March rate-- the sharpest drop since the last housing recession in 1990. "We're now projecting that home sales and housing production will not begin improving until late this year," said Dave Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. "And we're expecting the early stages of the subsequent recovery to be quite sluggish," he added.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18696697/


05-17:  New Phoenix-Tucson freeway studied, from the Arizona Republic, reports that state freeway planners are beginning to look at a route other than Interstate 10 for the drive from Phoenix to Tucson. ADOT is having four public hearings to get input from the public about possible ways to bypass the busiest portions of Interstate 10 in Phoenix and Tucson. The public meetings will help ADOT decide whether to continue with the study for a new freeway. ADOT has not drawn any lines on a map indicating a study area for the route, which would allow cargo trucks to bypass Phoenix on their way to California or other states. "It is essential for the economy of southern Arizona that the travel time between southern Arizona and the Phoenix area be reduced," said Si Schorr, vice chairman of the State Transportation Board and the brainchild of the new bypass freeway idea.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0517evbypass0517.html

05-18:  Mortgage fraud up in state, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that in 2006, Arizona ranked No. 11 in the country for mortgage fraud, up from No. 23 in 2005, according to a report released Wednesday by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute. "The Southwest United States has been an increasing hotbed for mortgage fraud activity," said Nick Larson, assistant vice president for the Virginia-based group. The number of fraud cases reported in Arizona in the first three months of 2006 was 213 percent higher than the same period the year prior, according to the report. The biggest problem is that there is no licensing for loan officers in Arizona, said Eric Bowlby, president of Amerifirst Financial in Mesa. "We have too many people in the industry," he said. "When you have an uneducated sales force, fraud is going to run rampant." Mortgage companies are now feeling the pinch of tightening lending guidelines resulting from the subprime crisis, making it more difficult for a buyer to qualify for a new loan.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/89883

05-18:  Home prices down 2.2 percent in metropolitan Phoenix, from the Arizona Republic, reports that metropolitan Phoenix home prices have dipped 2.2 percent in the past year, compared to a 1.8 percent drop nationally, according to the latest figures released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR also said that 62 metro areas across the country saw home prices fall between the first quarter of 2006 and 2007. NAR senior economist Lawrence Yun said the housing market could start to recover in the second half of this year. Nationally, the median home price fell from $216,100 to $212,300 during the past year. In metro Phoenix, the median home price dipped from $268,300 to $262,500.

 http://www.azcentral.com/community/phoenix/articles/0517homepriceonline.html

05-21:  Commuter freight trains could ease future gridlock, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Arizona leaders are considering using freight trains to shuttle passengers in the future, cutting vehicle traffic as the state's population grows to 16 million people by 2050. Roc Arnett, president and CEO of the East Valley Partnership, said commuter rail could transport travelers from Sky Harbor Airport to parts of the Southeast Valley before continuing to Tucson and back. "Just count the number of 15-passenger vans from Tucson to Phoenix to the airport," he said. "I'd bet there are 50 vans every day." Arnett, who is a member of a key transportation policy committee of the Maricopa Association of Governments, said he thinks the commuter rail is vital to the state's long-term economic growth.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0520heavyrail0521.html

05-21:  Economist: Home prices unlikely to rebound soon, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Thomas Higgins, an economist with the Los Angeles based investment firm Payden & Rygel, states that housing prices are not likely to rebound soon. "We think real estate prices will move sideways or slightly lower for several years," he said. Higgins doesn't think housing weakness will push the economy into a recession, but he does expect employment to drop for people in housing-related fields. One barometer he follows is the ratio of median housing prices to median household income. Nationally, the figure is 4.9 times greater, and it's a bit higher in the Valley, a 5.9. That implies more cooling off ahead so that incomes can catch up a bit to home prices.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0519biz-biztalker0519.html


05-21: Excess in resale-home supply puts burden on seller, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the Valley's real estate market has 20-25 percent more inventory than it needs, according to Jo Ann Webley, a real estate agent with RE/MAX Alliance Group in Gilbert. She said it is probably going to take 9 to 12 months to clear the excess inventory. In the meantime, this excess supply is affecting home sellers who are competing against not only the resales, but the large new-home inventory with all of the builder incentives. The key on the resale end is pricing and the condition of the home. Buyers are looking for homes in good condition that are well priced for their neighborhood, said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU. "It may be finally setting in with sellers and agents alike that this market is where its going to be, and you better be realistic about that price," he said. If sellers need to lower their asking price, they should limit it to one significant cut, Butler said.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/gilbert/articles/0518gr-summerhomes0518-ON.html

05-22:  Economists foresee sluggish 2007 growth, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that the National Association for Business Economics  predicts that the 2007 national economy will have its most sluggish growth in five years, growing only 2.2 percent. The main culprit is the sour housing market which fell into a slump after a five-year boom. Nearly half the forecasters think the market will not reach its bottom until this winter or later. Even so, the employment climate should continue to weather the fallout from the housing slump, forecasters say. They predict the unemployment rate for 2007 will match last year's rate of 4.6 percent, a six-year low. For next year, forecasters see the unemployment rate edging up to 4.8 percent, while growth is predicted to be at 2.9 percent. More than half the forecasters said that there was at least a 25 percent chance of a recession getting underway in the next year. On the inflation front, the forecasters predict consumer prices will rise by 2.5 percent this year, slightly higher than earlier forecasts due to the rising gasoline prices.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/90149

05-23:  Builders move homes by taking trade-ins, from the Arizona Republic, reports that builders frustrated by customers canceling deals are coming up with aggressive ways to keep them. Some are offering trade-in programs, while others are giving sales guarantees on existing homes. It's a switch from their traditional role in the house deal: building and then selling them. Now, builders are taking a more active role in clearing the way for buyers to purchase their homes.  The new programs are driven by a drop in new-home orders and soaring cancellation rates that have left many builders with an excess of unsold homes. Cancellations shot from 1 percent in January 2005, the midst of the housing boom, to nearly 29 percent in March, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a real estate and new-home construction consulting firm in California. Although some companies are seeing an improvement over last year, cancellations were still running high the first quarter of 2007. At Scottsdale-based Meritage Homes, cancellations stood at 28 percent. At KB Home, it was 31 percent. Pulte Homes lost 25 percent of the sales to cancellations in its Southwest division, which includes Arizona. Valley housing analyst RL Brown said a 15 percent rate is an acceptable industry standard.

 http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0523tradein0517.html

05-24:  SunCor sheds light on Marina Heights project, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that SunCor is moving to develop 26-acres on Tempe Town Lake's south shore with more than 3 million square feet of offices, condos, hotel rooms and shops. The Marina Heights project will give Suncor control of an entire mile of the lake's shoreline. Suncor made it's first pitch Tuesday before the Tempe Development Review Commission. The project would include two, 28-story towers, which is a concern with the FAA and US Airways. The remaining buildings would be from three to twelve stories tall. Suncor would put offices and hotel buildings toward Rural and Mill and place condos in the center. The latest proposal shows how the East Valley is getting and office and residential hub that rival the Camelback Corridor or central Phoenix, said Neil Calfee, Tempe's deputy community development manager.
 
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/90324  

05-24:  Job, population growth push Valley's apartment rents up, from the Arizona Republic, reports that apartment rents will likely climb higher in the coming months as supply dwindles and investors look to snatch up properties. Sales of apartment complexes has been brisk, and the trend shows no signs of letting up now that the condo-conversion craze has come to a halt. In the first four months of 2007, there were 48 sales of apartment complexes with 100 or more units, according to CB Richard Ellis Phoenix, representing $1.25 billion in sales. During the same period last year, there were 64 sales worth $1.1 billion. As a result, the average rent for an apartment in metro Phoenix rose to $805 in the first quarter of 2007, while a year ago it stood at $771. Some other factors driving the buying activity include lack of new product and job and population growth. 

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0524biz-apartments0524.html  
 
05-24:  Bidwill's plan major project, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the Bidwill family plans to build a 4.4 million square foot mixed-use development just south of the University of Phoenix stadium in Glendale, which would include a 40-story high-rise. The development, called cbd101, aims to attract big-name companies and high-end jobs. The 77-acre project would include residential units, a permanent public market, a series of art houses, and a 10-acre working farm with community gardens and open spaces for residents and employees. The Bidwills are plunking down $55 million to purchase the land from MSD Capital, an investment firm owned by computer magnate Michael Dell. The first phase of the development could break ground as early as 2009.
 
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0524cardsvillage0524.html
05-24:  New home sales rose 16.2% in April, prices fell 11%, from the USA TODAY, reports that sales of new homes nationwide rose 16.2% in April, the sharpest climb in 14 years, while prices fell a record 11%, according to a report from the U.S. Commerce Department released today. The sharp rise in sales and the bid decrease in prices shows that homebuilders are doing what they must do to move inventory. In April, the median sales price of a new home fell $28,500, from $257,600 in March to $229,100 in April. There were 538,000 new homes for sale in April, a drop from the 546,000 reported in March. It would take 6.5 months to clear that inventory at the current sales pace, less than the 8.1 months recorded in March. We are headed in the right direction!

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-05-24-new-homesales_N.htm

05-25:  Sales of new homes surged in April as prices plunged, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the Commerce Department reported Thursday that sales of new single-family homes jumped by 16.2 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 981,000 units. That was the biggest one-month sales gain since a 16.4 percent surge in April 1993. Even with the increase, however, sales are 10.6 percent below the level of a year ago. The median price of a new home, the midway point between the costliest and cheapest, fell to $229,100, a record 11.1 percent below the March level. The price was 10.9 percent below the level of a year ago, the biggest year-over-year price decline since '70. David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, said he was looking for sales of new homes to fall by 18 percent for the whole year, matching last year's decline.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0525biz-mktsector0525.html

05-25:  Big drop in home prices predicted, from CNN.com, reports that most industry watchers agree that home prices will continue to slide before they recover, but now some economists say they've got a long way to fall before bouncing back. David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poors, has forecast a price drop of about 8 percent for the 24-month period through the fourth quarter of 2008. His prediction came during a general economic outlook session at the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Secondary Market Conference & Expo in New York this week. Housing prices will suffer from a "significant increase in defaults and foreclosures," he said, with affordability still a major issue. Wyss worried how hard the slump will hit already highly inflated housing markets. Celia Chen, Moody's Economy.com's director of housing economics followed Wyss' lead. "We also have an 8 percent decline in median house prices [for the 24-month period ending March 31, 2008], which is consistent with what David Wyss had." "That is quite a bold forecast," Lawrence Yun, economist at the National Association of Realtors, speaking from his Washington, D.C. office, said of Wyss's prediction. NAR is predicting a much less severe total decline of 1.4 percent through the slump - prices have already declined three straight quarters - and that a recovery will start to take place in early 2008."The run up," Yun said, "was an investor-demand driven boom, and it was followed by an investor-driven collapse." He noted that speculative investors in a rising market drove up prices and are now taking profits or unloading slowly appreciating properties. Buying as an investment fell by 29 percent in 2006, according to NAR stats. That slide, which began in 2006, will last through the end of this year, Yun said.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/23/real_estate/prediction_big_home_price_drop/index.htm

05-25:  Mortgage rates move sharply higher, from CNN.com, reports that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans climbed to 6.37 percent for the week ending May 24, up from 6.21 the previous week, Freddie Mac reported on Thursday. Last year at this time, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.62 percent. "Stronger than expected consumer confidence and recent comments from members of the Federal Reserve raised some inflation concerns in the market, causing it to lower expectations of a Fed rate cut this year. This helped push mortgage rates higher this week," Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's vice president and chief economist, said in a statement. "We expect a gradual rise in mortgage rates over the remainder of the year with sales slipping further in the second half of the year. A gradual recovery returns toward the end of 2007 with modest increases in sales and construction during 2008."

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/24/real_estate/mortgage_rates/index.htm?postversion=2007052417

05-29:  Hope for stability in housing market grows fainter, from the Arizona Republic, reports on the latest RL Brown Phoenix Housing Market Letter. RL Brown reports that new-home sales, new-home permits and resales were all down in April from March in metro Phoenix. Brown said the hope that supply and demand for homes in metro Phoenix will balance out in 2007 grows "fainter and fainter". It's key to the housing market picking back up. New home sales in the Valley fell 20 percent from March, and building permits fell 5 percent. Existing home sales fell 8 percent. Brown said that if the Valley's housing market doesn't pick up, this year could be a year of 34,000 single-family permits, but he is still optimistic that we will do better than that. Last year there were 42,460 new homes built Valley-wide. Brown reiterates that the Valley will continue to grow, which means the housing market will eventually rebound and grow, but not as soon as most had hoped for.

 http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0527biz-catherine0527.html


05-29:  Ritz-Carlton parcel sold for $89.5 million, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the 123-acre Ritz-Carlton property located at Lincoln Drive northwest of Scottsdale Road, has been sold to Five Star Development Resort Communities for $89.5 million. Marriott International bought the undeveloped property in 2005 for $74 million. In September, Joy Berry, senior vice president of real estate development for Marriott, said Marriott was shopping for a master developer to buy the property, build the project and have Marriott manage the resort. Five-Star Development's corporate office are in Scottsdale, and David Schmid is its vice president of development.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0528sr-pvritz0529-ON.html


05-29:  Is your residence 'aging ready'?, from the Arizona Republic, reports that a recent MetLife Foundation study discusses how "aging-ready" we are in this country, including our housing stock that will need to be ready for the baby boomer population surge. As the report points out, there are more than 35 million Americans over the age of 65 right now. By 2030, one in every five Americans will be over 65. The majority of Americans want to age in place by staying within their own communities. This may require modifications to existing residences to make them more user friendly to aged or disabled elderly residents. Improved lighting, grab bars, doors that are wheelchair friendly are among several areas to consider. There may also be more demand for single-level homes as our population ages. This is a very interesting and lucrative trend for our real estate industry.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0528sr-aging0529-ON.html